Home » VT News » The Pencil: Fall Las Vegas Room Rate Study

The Pencil: Fall Las Vegas Room Rate Study

By Chuckmonster on Friday, 1st October 2010 2:50pm
  » filed under Las Vegas  comments: 11


So, with the arrival of summer fall now is as good a time as any to take a 500 foot view hotel rates trends over the coming two months. For the purpose of this study, we've selected seven properties to compare, Wynn Las Vegas, Bellagio, Mirage, Aria, Caesars Palace, Flamingo and Venetian. Data was scraped from casino websites on September 28 - 29th and covers the period of October 1st - November 30th. Resort fees are not factored into display (for Mirage add $16.50/night, for Wynn +$20/night.)

Here is a visualization of the entire data set, the green line is the average daily rate of all casinos, a water mark for comparison.

Room Rates Oct Nov 2010 Sm

The graph is a little difficult to digest in this display, but we've linked up a higher resolution version for thorough study. The obvious takeaways on this most basic graph is how Wynn is commanding (and getting) higher rates... in some cases 2x times that of Bellagio and even more of a multiple over Aria, Caesars Palace and Venetian.

Room Rates Oct Nov 2010 Avg

Above is the overall Average daily rate of all properties sampled from October 1 - November 30. Of the holidays included - Columbus Day, Halloween, Veterans Day and Thanksgiving, only Columbus Day appears to be having a major spike in rates, which could be attributed to it falling on a Monday as well as its proximity to the date the rates were sampled. Thanksgiving, not normally a weekend one would expect with Vegas tripping does a pretty brisk drive in business from California during the four day weekend, as such rates do spike a bit that weekend.

Since Wynn is commanding near multiples of ADR over competitors, I thought it might be interesting to see how removing them from the calculations affect the overall ADR room rate trends.

Room Rates Oct Nov 2010 W

As expected, there is a noticeable difference when comparing ADR average with non Wynn ADR trend. The difference gets even greater as dates approach the holiday season. This could mean that Wynn has figured out how to better maintain occupancy during the holiday season, or they don't reduce asking rates until the booking window is very small, or they're very 25-50% more optimistic that they can fill their hotel in December.

Room Rates Oct Nov 2010 4st

Another interesting subset of the data are the 4-4.5 star resorts: Bellagio, Aria, Caesars Palace, Venetian. Using price as an indicator, these four resorts are 4-4.5 star price echelon. What is surprising here isn't that Bellagio would trend out at the highest level, but that the 50+ year old Caesars Palace is so incredibly competitive compared to comparatively brand new properties. It is also worth nothing - and can be borne out by looking at the first graph again - that Aria's room rates almost mirror the overall averages with occasional dips to the underside. Compared with nearly all of the 4+ star properties, Aria is underperforming... which the astute Vegas tripper will see as a booking opportunity, particularly from Halloween weekend on through New Years Eve.

One thing is for sure, room rates have definitely on the rise compared to previous studies. If you haven't yet taken advantage of the possibility to stay at some of the ritziest hotels in the world at a recession busting price, your window of opportunity is slowly starting to close.

Tagged: pencil   room rates   wynn   bellagio   aria   caesars palace   flamingo   venetian   mirage   


Comments & Discussion:

Nice to see I called the bottom... I'm snuggled up in that little gully during the week of the 20th =)

Very informative, thanks Chuck

I stayed there a week ago and they're doing a much better job in terms of service, cleanliness, etc.

This is awesomely informative. Thanks.

Excellent work. And as much as I love deals, I'd rather see a healthier Vegas and hopefully the room rates trends are a sign of just that.

It is good to see rates starting to firm up. Group and convention business is beginning to return, which is definitely a factor this time of year. Light at the end of the tunnel?

Any chance of seeing a rate comparison of something other than the 7 most expensive places in town? Not all of us get hard for crushed velvet and gold leaf or enjoy the smell of our own farts.

not staying at any of these but interesting to see how the higher end hotels are doing.

Nice work and definitely interesting. Although Caesars does continue to market a high end rack rate, I do have to wonder though, what they are pulling in for the property on a per night basis. Given their TR calendar for Oct, Nov, Dec, and Jan, have shown weekdays as comp for low level gold players for the last couple weeks, it just seems to me that they are dealing with low occupancy, similar to what they had in Summer of 2009, when I saw the same comp dates show up for members logging in.

I will say, Caesars/Harrahs has done a nice job of maintaining their retail/market rates at Caesars during the recession, while I'm sure they had some downturn, being able to turn to their low end TR members and comping them rooms, seemed to have allowed them to avoid severely discounting Caesars to the masses.

I don't have the dataset, but to my eyes, that looks like a declining average over time. C-monster, can you run a least-squares through that data and see what the line looks like?

As a comparison, the national RevPAR numbers don't look very good:


these places are nothing like the hangover....what the chay?!?

Comments Are Closed

Subscribe via RSS

Recent Comments:

michigan2010 posted: "MGM equals cookie cutter casino. No to reason to step foot in Bellagio again. Just hope they don't screw up..."
» Sayonara Bellagio Table Game Canopies...
saharalv posted: "I wish the editors were the entire electoral college in 2016...."
» Introducing the Trippies Class of...
fatbastard posted: "So many people letting a billionaire live rent free in their heads. Funny. Too bad it also detracts from the..."
» Introducing the Trippies Class of...
wpsteel66 posted: "Total bummer…talk about taking the class and uniqueness away from the Bellagio…another smart move on CEO Jim and making all..."
» Sayonara Bellagio Table Game Canopies...
damania posted: "Is there a podcast?..."
» Introducing the Trippies Class of...

» More Comments